Strong candidate could turn next mayoralty race into a 'dogfight'So you're a bigwig. You have access to money, and, lately, thoughts of a jump to politics have you thinking you could do a better job than Peter Kelly. Your foray into politics will start with a jump straight to the top municipal job.
You want to be mayor.
According to Rick Emberley, CEO and president of Bristol Omnifacts Research, the mayor's current poll numbers would be just the encouragement needed for someone who's looking to occupy the big office in Grand Parade. He believes it wouldn't take much for change.
"If I were analyzing right now the prospects of whether or not I should run, is this the time run, and so forth, if somebody presented me with these numbers, it would reinforce my view to run," Emberley says.
"If it's a one on one competition the current mayor and one other 'distinguished' candidate, it could be a real dog fight," Emberley said.
Out of a possible 10, residents give Kelly a mean score of 6.7. Since 1-4 represents dissatisfaction, 5-6 neutral and 7-10 satisfaction, the pollsters say, Kelly's score is only slightly above the neutral mark. And that means a slip, an untimely mistake or a strong showing from another candidate, and Kelly could be packing up.
Kelly's only rival to date, though technically undeclared, is Connaught-Quinpool Coun. Sheila Fougere, who says the polling numbers won't sway her determination to run.
"Quite honestly, it doesn't bolster me or deter me," Fougere says.
"Even if I chose not to run for mayor - which I am - that would not dissuade me or encourage me even more. My reason for running is to offer people a choice because I think I can do a good job. It really has nothing to do with Peter Kelly and his popularity or unpopularity," she says.
Fougere adds that she's always believed change to be possible. She says polls are just a snapshot in time of what people are thinking. And in politics, that can change instantly.
"It can change with a turn of events at a moment's notice. The weather, an accident, an event, a disaster, a wonderful happening, can change political perception at a moment's notice.
"And how things are reflected in the media can change people's perception as well," Fougere says.
Likewise, Kelly has been around long enough to know that opinions can change quickly. One day he's viewed as the man who pulled out of the Commonwealth Games in a barely democratic fashion; the next, he's the guy who saved city taxpayers from financial ruin at the hands of the Games.
Kelly sees the poll numbers as fairly supportive.
"One takes nothing for granted. Ever. In politics, each day is a new day," Kelly says.
"Each day is trying to make sure you put your best face and your best effort forward to serve your masters, which is the public. A politician should never, ever become complacent and never, ever lose focus that it's not about the political process but about doing the job that (the public) want you to do," Kelly says.
With 13 months to go before the next municipal election, mayoral election speculation is a City Hall game that councillors take to like kids on recess.
With every vocal critic of the mayor, seems to come the thought: hmm, is this guy trying to become mayor?
There's Victor Syperek, Kelly's last rival, or pollster Don Mills. Syperek will criticize the mayor and council with any given opportunity, and Mills has been especially outspoken since the demise of the Commonwealth Games bid.
If there's any truth to the whispers, they're not letting on. Both deny they'll run for the job.
Until that October date, speculation at City Hall will only ramp up. According to one poll, though, they're playing for all the marbles.
Says Emberley, "I think it's fair to say there is an appetite for change with respect for municipal government."
smassinon@hfxnews.ca
http://www.hfxnews.ca/index.cfm?sid=65221&sc=433
