A shrug and a sigh: Mayor's support tepid

CityThink is a wide-ranging poll conducted by Bristol Omnifacts Research in Halifax for The Daily News to take the pulse of HRM residents on six key issues that affect their daily lives. Over the next three weeks, we'll be rolling out a series of stories examining what residents said about municipal politics, urban development, crime, school, environment, racism and health.

We begin today with a look at municipal politics

His supporters say the mayor's tireless work behind the scenes gets the job done for the city. His critics call him a leader without vision.

The people of HRM, apparently, seem to say: "Meh, he's doing alright."

A poll conducted by Bristol Omnifacts Research for The Daily News shows tepid support of Kelly's leadership at a mean satisfaction rating of 6.7 out of 10, a figure the pollster places just above neutral.

In other words, with a shrug and a sigh, the residents are OK with Kelly but far from lavishing him with praise.

"If you're sitting (in the mayor's office) and the satisfaction levels with your leadership are down in that 6 to 7 range, I'm telling you right now, it wouldn't take a lot to move you out of the job," Bristol president and CEO Rick Emberley says.

The data shows the mayor polls lowest amongst people aged 35-54.

"There is no passion associated with the support that's exhibited in these numbers no matter how you slice and dice them by age categories, gender, income levels, education levels - makes no difference," Emberley says.

Those surveyed were asked to rate their satisfaction on a 1-to-10 scale.

From one to four is considered dissatisfied and 13 per cent of residents said that's how they felt. Numbers five and six are considered neutral and 24 per cent chose those figures. Finally, seven to 10 is considered satisfied and 57 per cent picked numbers in that range.

Of those numbers, pollsters say the mean value, or average, is a good indication of public sentiment.

The man himself views the figures optimistically. Kelly says the numbers are a sign that his public masters generally appreciate the job he's doing.

He sees the numbers as showing that 81 per cent of the public have a satisfactory view of the work he and council have done. He arrives at that number by adding five and up.

"There is always room for improvement. We always strive to do better each and every day as a council and one can never become complacent. We have to make sure that we continually evolve to the needs of the community," Kelly says.

Perceptions of the mayor haven't fluctuated much in the last year. Sixty-three per cent of respondents say their view of Kelly hasn't changed, while 18 per cent say it's worsened and 15 per cent say it's improved. There is no previous benchmark to compare those figures.

"Close to two-thirds say their impressions have stayed the same. Does that mean it's stayed low? Did it stay high? Who knows?" says Bristol's managing director of product development, Layton Dorey.

Kelly says the public has agreed with the big-item decisions to come from council chambers.

"From what I understand, the public are pleased that we've taken this stand on the Commonwealth Games. That has been made clear. I would interpret this (data) the same or somewhat improved, based on those decisions of not going forward with the Commonwealth Games, the roundtable (on violence), the issues of the HRM by Design and the planning policies.

"So I see this on the other side in saying that 78 per cent stated they are the same or improved based on those initiatives of council," Kelly says.

So why is Kelly polling this way?

Depends who you ask. Councillors are divided in their opinions of the Traditional Stopping Place mayor. Purcells Cove Coun. Linda Mosher says the mayor's hard work often goes unnoticed.

"I think that the mayor is honest," Mosher says. "He has the public's best wishes at hand and not his own. He's not self-serving and he's doing the best job he can, given the staff resources we have and the council that we have."

With an election looming in the distance, she thinks there are special interests in the community trying to tarnish the mayor. "It's not fair," she says.

Conversely, deputy mayor Sue Uteck says people are looking for more from the mayor's office.

"I don't get it - why he's so popular," Uteck says.

"He's very calculating. He gets up and says, 'Which way is the wind blowing today?'"

The man who most recently held his job says he's hearing more and more criticism of Kelly.

Walter Fitzgerald says Kelly needs to stand up and be identified with some issues.

"I think he has to get a little more involved and make some decisions," Fitzgerald says.

"I think on a lot of public events, he should be out front. On public relations, he's not always out front. You ask him what he's thinking and you wouldn't know by what he's been doing. He hasn't made a major stand on anything new, so most people don't know what he stands for and what he's done."

Dalhousie University political scientist Lori Turnbull says Kelly is fairly outspoken.

"He wants people to see him as making progress and being concerned and working for them. People recognize that they're not going to be really disappointed with the mayor who seems to be pretty contentious," Turnbull says.

"At the same time, you're not going to see people expressing overwhelming support for a mayor."

The issues she associates with Kelly is emergency preparedness, which he's worked on through the Federation of Canadian Municipalities, and crime.

"I think he's very concerned with the level of crime in the city. Because that's become such a problem in Halifax in the past year - or at least people are getting the feeling that it's becoming more of a problem - it's got to be important for him to be seen as being active on that issue.

"Which he is, I mean, by talking to the Guardian Angels, he's in the media talking about it, he recognizes that it's a problem for people," Turnbull says.

Kelly is polling higher than the rest of his peers on council. But Bristol's Emberley says it shouldn't bring much comfort.

"Being the best of the bad lot doesn't necessarily provide you with much sense of security."

smassinon@hfxnews.ca

http://www.hfxnews.ca/index.cfm?sid=65219&sc=433